Regional Back-to-School Traffic Peaks:
Why Timing is Everything
In our recent Back-to-School webinar with Journeys and Sensormatic, we look at why Retailers are not making the most of the Back-to-School (BTS) season.
Back-to-School is often treated as a single season, depending on where you are located, we should should consider BTS as four different seasons. ShopperTrak’s foot traffic data reveals significant week-to-week variation in traffic spikes across the U.S. Census regions: South, West, Midwest, and Northeast.
Understanding these differences, and acting on them, is the key to maximizing in-store sales without overstaffing or under-serving customers.
West & South: Early Movers (Peaks: NRF Weeks 26–27)
The West and South regions tend to start their Back-to-School shopping earliest. Schools here often return in early August, and states in the South also align BTS timing with state tax holidays, creating compressed shopping bursts.
Peak weeks: Week 26 (late July) to Week 27 (early August).
Labor strategy: Staff early — and staff strong.
Retail implication: Start BTS staffing & promotions no later than mid-July.
While retailers can’t control the market, they can control what happens inside their stores, and at the center of that control is labor. Labor isn’t just a cost to manage, it’s a lever to grow revenue. When deployed intentionally, in other words, by time, role, and associate, it becomes one of the most powerful tools to drive conversion, increase average basket size, and improve customer experience.
The goal, when looking at your labor budget, shouldn’t simply be about coverage. It should be treated as a profitability lever. And we can all agree that this, now more than ever, is exactly what retailers need in their toolbox. The best way to get there is through data. For example, think of the manager who reallocates their team mid-shift to respond to an unexpected traffic spike; or the associate who turns a hesitant browser into a multi-item sale. These moments don’t happen by chance. They happen when labor decisions are guided by real-time data and insight. When data is used in the moment, success stops being accidental and t becomes repeatable.
Retailers have long known that data matters. But today, it’s no longer enough to look back. It’s time to use data that acts in real time telling you what’s happening now, and what to do next.
Midwest: The Middle of the Pack (Peaks: NRF Weeks 27–28)
The Midwest follows close behind, but with more gradual traffic build-up than the South or West. Most school districts here begin between early and mid-August.
Peak weeks: Week 27 (early August) to Week 28 (mid-August).
Labor strategy: Ramp up in stages. Midweek staffing becomes critical.
Retail implication: Forecast demand across a 2–3 week curve.
We know from our clients, that his isn’t hypothetical. Conversion lifts when your strongest sellers are on the floor at peak. ATV increases when teams have the time and energy to upsell. And Visit Value climbs when associates aren’t rushed, distracted, or stretched too thin. These aren’t soft benefits, they’re revenue drivers. And they compound. By tying labor strategy to key metrics like SPSH (Sales Per Selling Hour), ATV, and UPT, retailers turn scheduling into a bottom-line growth engine. Not a sunk cost.
Northeast: The Late Surge (Peaks: NRF Weeks 29–30)
The Northeast is the most delayed region, with many schools starting after Labor Day. Retailers in this region experience strong late August traffic and even early September spikes.
Peak weeks: Week 29 (late August) to Week 30 (early September)
Labor strategy: Keep staffing strong later than your other markets.
Retail implication: Maintain peak coverage well past the “national” BTS window
Why This Matters
Here’s what ShopperTrak’s multi-year data confirmed:
– In 2022 and 2023, BTS peaks were staggered by as much as 3–4 weeks across these four regions.
– In 2024, the calendar shifted slightly due to Labor Day’s position, 2025 is projected to mirror 2024.
– Journeys used this insight to forecast peak weeks at the store level, not just by region.
“Planning BTS like it’s one national event is a fast way to miss revenue,” said Jonathan Generous of ShopperTrak. “These curves vary not just by state, they vary by school district, tax law, and even mall co-tenancy.”
By integrating traffic data directly into their StoreForce scheduling, Journeys was able to:
– Align staffing with actual foot traffic patterns, not outdated assumptions.
– Schedule more accurately around hyper-local demand shifts.
– Capture more selling opportunities during true peak hours.
The result, the saw an 11% increase in comparable sales during Q3 of 2024. With 77% of peak hours now covered, they’ve still got an additional 23% in peak-hour sales be won; and they’re planning to do just that.
Want to see what your BTS potential really looks like?
Let’s run your traffic data through a StoreForce scheduling lens and show you what’s being left on the table.